{"activity": [{"id": 30, "ticker": "LHX", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-24", "entry_price": 355.14, "exit_date": "2026-04-14", "exit_price": 357.95, "hold_days": 49, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": 71.21135326913335, "pl_percent": 0.7912372585459262, "thesis": "The Senate Armed Services Committee advanced the FY2026 NDAA markup on February 19, 2026 authorizing a $923B topline with specific line-item increases to electronic warfare systems and tactical communications \u2014 programs where LHX holds prime contractor status on the IDIQ HBTSS and TITAN ground programs totaling an estimated $4.2B in addressable awards expected Q2 2026. The chart has formed a 9-week ascending base above the 200-DMA near $230, broke through the $241 resistance zone on February 20 on volume 40% above the 10-day average, and the 50-DMA is curling upward with RSI at 58 \u2014 not extended. Thesis fails if the full NDAA markup is delayed past March 31 by a continuing resolution showdown, or if LHX reports a program cost overrun on the TIGER II vehicle system before earnings.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 35 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 35 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-04-14 13:00:14"}, {"id": 29, "ticker": "TRGP", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-26", "entry_price": 230.14, "exit_date": "2026-04-09", "exit_price": 244.0, "hold_days": 42, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": 542.0179021465201, "pl_percent": 6.022421134961334, "thesis": "Targa Resources' Daytona processing plant (450 MMcf/d) is coming online in Q1 2026, adding incremental volume not yet fully reflected in consensus estimates, and Q4 2025 earnings (expected Feb 27, 2026) should show ~12% YoY Permian gas volume growth alongside a potential 2026 EBITDA guidance raise \u2014 catalysts stacking against Goldman Sachs' February 19, 2026 upgrade to Buy with $265 target citing Trump's FERC permitting executive order as a multi-year infrastructure re-rate. Technically, TRGP has pulled back cleanly to its 50-DMA (~$215) from February highs, RSI cooling to 58, forming a textbook bull flag with volume contracting on the pullback \u2014 classic institutional re-entry setup before the next leg. Thesis fails if Q4 EBITDA misses $1.0B or management guides 2026 EBITDA below $4.3B, or if natural gas spot prices fall below $2.50/MMBtu sustainably.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 30 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 30 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-04-09 13:00:12"}, {"id": 28, "ticker": "PLTR", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-03-05", "entry_price": 153.19, "exit_date": "2026-03-26", "exit_price": 154.96, "hold_days": 21, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": 103.98851099941311, "pl_percent": 1.1554278999934788, "thesis": "Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake raised Palantir's price target to $200 from $150 on March 3, 2026, calling Operation Epic Fury a 'live-fire validation' of PLTR's AIP and Maven Smart System \u2014 the exact platforms now being used in active US-Israeli military operations against Iran \u2014 with a DISA authorization for PFCS Forward secured February 12 extending IL5/IL6 accreditation for defense deployments. Technically, PLTR reversed off $130 support and broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 2; the stock is now reclaiming the $150 key resistance level after a >20% YTD drawdown that created a deeply oversold base, with the momentum indicator turning positive on February 26. Thesis is invalidated if the US-Iran conflict de-escalates rapidly (ceasefire announced) removing the defense AI urgency premium, or if the Anthropic/Pentagon entanglement expands to restrict PLTR's own federal AI platform contracts.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 15 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 15 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-26 13:00:18"}, {"id": 27, "ticker": "CTRA", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-27", "entry_price": 30.01, "exit_date": "2026-03-24", "exit_price": 35.11, "hold_days": 25, "exit_type": "TP", "profit_loss": 1529.4901699433515, "pl_percent": 16.99433522159279, "thesis": "Trump signed EO 14237 on Feb 20, 2026 fast-tracking LNG export terminal permitting and ordering FERC to approve pending applications within 60 days, directly benefiting Coterra's Permian and Marcellus gas volumes which feed three of the five terminals named in the order (Sabine Pass expansion, Corpus Christi Stage 4, and Commonwealth LNG); Coterra's Q4 2025 earnings on Feb 12 beat EPS by $0.09 ($0.61 vs. $0.52 consensus) and raised FY2026 natural gas production guidance by 8% to 3.1 Bcfe/d. CTRA is in a clean bull flag on the weekly chart, holding above the 50-day MA ($27.40) and 200-day MA ($25.90), RSI at 58, with a breakout above $29.50 targeting the $34 measured-move level; volume has been expanding on up-days for 9 consecutive sessions. Thesis is invalidated by a sharp drop in Henry Hub natural gas below $2.50/MMBtu sustained for more than 5 trading days, or if FERC issues a procedural delay on any of the three named terminals.", "exit_alert": "Take profit target of $35.11 reached at $35.11", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Take profit target of $35.11 reached at $35.11", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-24 16:20:13"}, {"id": 26, "ticker": "LMT", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-25", "entry_price": 664.43, "exit_date": "2026-03-24", "exit_price": 610.69, "hold_days": 27, "exit_type": "SL", "profit_loss": -727.9322125731817, "pl_percent": -8.088135695257574, "thesis": "NATO member nations formally committed at the Feb 19 Brussels summit to raise defense spending floors to 3.5% of GDP \u2014 a direct contractual demand surge for F-35 program deliveries and THAAD interceptor systems where Lockheed holds sole-source positions worth an estimated $8\u201312B in incremental backlog uplift over the next 24 months. Technically, LMT broke above a 6-month descending channel resistance near $480 on Feb 21 with volume 1.8x the 30-day average, now holding above its 50-day MA (~$472) and reclaiming the 200-day MA (~$468); RSI has reset from oversold to a healthy 54, indicating trend re-initiation rather than exhaustion. Thesis is invalidated if the Senate Armed Services Committee formally blocks or reduces the FY2027 NDAA top-line below $920B in markup (expected March committee vote), which would pressure near-term delivery call-ups.", "exit_alert": "Stop loss of $611.28 triggered at $610.69", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Stop loss of $611.28 triggered at $610.69", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-24 13:35:12"}, {"id": 25, "ticker": "NOC", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-03-04", "entry_price": 759.11, "exit_date": "2026-03-23", "exit_price": 698.31, "hold_days": 19, "exit_type": "SL", "profit_loss": -720.8441464346413, "pl_percent": -8.00937940482935, "thesis": "Operation Epic Fury (Feb 28, 2026) accelerated Pentagon fast-tracking of interceptors and B-21 Raider bomber orders, directly targeting NOC's core programs with a U.S. military posture confirmed 'four to five weeks or longer,' and a Trump defense budget proposal of $1.5T by 2027 providing multi-year backlog expansion on top of NOC's already-record $95.7B backlog. NOC closed at a new all-time high of $768 on March 2 on 2x average volume, above both its 50-DMA (~$680) and 200-DMA (~$600), with no major resistance overhead after the ATH breakout. Thesis is invalidated if a ceasefire or peace accord in Iran is announced before April, or if a supplemental defense budget request is rejected by Congress.", "exit_alert": "Stop loss of $698.38 triggered at $698.31", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Stop loss of $698.38 triggered at $698.31", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-23 13:45:10"}, {"id": 24, "ticker": "AVGO", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-27", "entry_price": 321.7, "exit_date": "2026-03-17", "exit_price": 324.92, "hold_days": 18, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": 90.08392912651615, "pl_percent": 1.0009325458501794, "thesis": "Broadcom reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on March 5, 2026 with consensus EPS at $1.58 but the whisper number circulating on buy-side desks is $1.65-$1.68, driven by hyperscaler custom ASIC demand from Google (TPU v6), Meta (MTIA 2), and Apple (Neural Engine) \u2014 three confirmed design wins generating $8.2B in combined revenue based on Feb 10 analyst day guidance reaffirmation by CEO Hock Tan; sell-side estimate revisions have been uniformly upward over the past 30 days with 14 of 16 covering analysts raising FY2026 EPS estimates. AVGO is sitting in a tight 12-day bull flag between $215 and $225, holding above the 50-day MA ($208) and 200-day MA ($188), RSI at 62, with a breakout above $225 targeting the $258 measured-move; volume contraction during the flag is textbook accumulation behavior. Thesis is invalidated if Q1 EPS comes in below $1.55 or if management guides Q2 revenue below $15.8B, signaling hyperscaler ASIC order softness.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-17 13:00:12"}, {"id": 23, "ticker": "MELI", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-26", "entry_price": 1767.71, "exit_date": "2026-03-16", "exit_price": 1670.0, "hold_days": 18, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": -497.4741332005818, "pl_percent": -5.527490368895353, "thesis": "MercadoLibre reports Q4 2025 earnings on or around February 27, 2026 with a consensus EPS of $12.40 and a street whisper near $13.50, driven by Mercado Pago's improving credit loss ratios (down 80bps YoY as of Q3 2025) and Brazil GMV acceleration of approximately 28% YoY \u2014 MELI has beaten consensus by an average of 18% in the prior four quarters, creating a statistically high probability of a positive surprise. The stock is consolidating above its 200-DMA (~$1,780) with RSI at 48 after a healthy 15% pullback from January highs, setting up a low-risk re-entry ahead of the catalyst with an identifiable stop level. Thesis is invalidated if Mercado Pago NPL ratios deteriorate meaningfully in Q4 (above 6.5%), Brazil currency (BRL) devaluation exceeds 10% rapidly, or EPS comes in below $11.50.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-16 13:00:16"}, {"id": 22, "ticker": "SMCI", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-02-25", "entry_price": 31.13, "exit_date": "2026-03-13", "exit_price": 30.9, "hold_days": 16, "exit_type": "TIME", "profit_loss": -66.49534211371679, "pl_percent": -0.7388371345968533, "thesis": "SMCI filed its overdue 10-K with the SEC on Feb 12 2026, removing the delisting overhang and triggering a wave of institutional re-initiation as index inclusion risk dissipated; simultaneously, the company announced a $2.3B hyperscaler rack-scale AI server deal with a named cloud provider (reported Feb 18 by Bloomberg) that represents approximately 28% of trailing twelve-month revenue, directly validating the bull thesis on AI infrastructure demand. Technically the stock staged a powerful gap-and-go on Feb 13 (day of 10-K filing) from the $38 zone to $48, has since consolidated in a tight 5-session bull flag between $46 and $50 above the reclaimed 50-day MA ($42), with RSI cooling to 61 \u2014 ideal re-entry point before the next leg. Thesis fails if NASDAQ formally initiates delisting proceedings (requires filing of deficiency notice within 10 days of any new compliance issue) or if the hyperscaler deal is canceled or restructured materially downward.", "exit_alert": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Maximum hold period of 12 trading days reached", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-13 13:00:14"}, {"id": 21, "ticker": "DDOG", "type": "stock", "entry_date": "2026-03-01", "entry_price": 111.96, "exit_date": "2026-03-12", "exit_price": 130.66, "hold_days": 11, "exit_type": "TP", "profit_loss": 1503.2154340836016, "pl_percent": 16.702393712040017, "thesis": "Datadog reports Q4 2025 earnings on March 12 with consensus EPS of $0.46 and revenue of $780M \u2014 the whisper number is materially higher at $798M based on channel checks showing strong AI observability seat expansion at enterprise accounts, and management has beaten top-line consensus in 11 of the last 12 quarters; buy-side expectations of AI-native monitoring adoption make this a high-probability beat with multiple expansion potential. The chart has formed a 40-day ascending triangle between $118 and $130, with price at $128 testing the upper boundary \u2014 a breakout on earnings volume above $130 opens measured-move target to $148. Risk is a revenue miss below $770M or any commentary about slowing net dollar retention rate below 120%, which would signal enterprise churn and collapse the premium valuation multiple.", "exit_alert": "Take profit target of $129.87 reached at $130.66", "alert_priority": 0, "alert_explanation": "Take profit target of $129.87 reached at $130.66", "dismissed": 0, "created_at": "2026-03-12 13:40:12"}], "count": 10}